A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
